Whats NEW in Mortgages Today

Lately we have been talking with quite a few clients that are having issues with collections showing up on their Credit Reports. With these collections it is making it tough for some people to get approved for a Mortgage. Here are some tips that should help when you are dealing with the agencies. No matter where you are in Michigan give us a call and we will do our best to help you.

Ten Rules for Handling Collection Agencies

1. Realize that Credit collection agents are usually working on commissions. This is a JOB to them and the more they get you to pay, the larger their paycheck. They will be persistent, so be prepared.

2. Don't argue with the agent, because you will lose. This is what the do all day, every day and they have heard every excuse in the book. They are prepared with an answer to everything. State your case but don't argue.

3. It usually doesn't help to ask to speak to someone's boss. In this case, talking to the supervisor normally won't help (in fact it could be worse). Remember, he ended up with his job because he was good at what he did and was able to squeeze every dime out of past consumers who had disputes.

4. Never give information out over the telephone to a collection agency. This includes your driver's license number, social security number, debit card numbers, check numbers, credit card numbers, or bank account numbers. They should already have this information.

5. Use a money order or certified funds to make all payments. Make a copy of it and staple it to the bill.

6. Keep records of everything (including dates of phone calls and what was said), and make sure that anything sent through the mail has a return receipt.

7. Make sure you get written confirmation of any deals or negotiated payoffs. Make sure you have something that says the collection has been satisfied.

8. Never take their first offer when negotiating a lower payment as they will always call back with a better offer.

9. Use powerful sentences like, "This is all I can afford to pay," rather than "this is all I am going to pay." This is a much better negotiation tactic when you are trying to lower the payoff with the collection agent.

10. When repairing your credit, it is a good rule to keep copies of all your credit reports. That way you can track the process of what has been repaired and make sure that what you negotiated is coming to pass.

While it would be impossible to include everything there is to know about dealing with collection agents, these 10 tips will almost always result in more money in your pocket and less in their

There was a story in the Wall Street Journal wondering "But if rates are so low, why isn't demand for new loans picking up? For one, most borrowers who could refinance probably did so last year, when rates fell below 5% in March, August, and December. Many borrowers with an incentive to refinance can't qualify with today's tougher lending standards or don't think it's worth paying the closing costs on a new loan. Credit Suisse estimates that around 61% of all borrowers with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage could lower their mortgage rate by 0.75 percentage point at current rates. But analysts estimate that only 38% of those borrowers could actually qualify at current standards. More borrowers can't qualify because they don't have enough equity in their homes, their credit scores have taken a hit, or they've seen their income reduced."

Getting past all of the statistics and numbers, it still is amazing how many people have not looked into refinancing their current mortgage. Approximately 30% of the homeowners are able to do something right now and yet the activity for new loans is down?  When the opportunity to save money on such a large and long term investment is here, the question as to why people aren't taking action must be asked.

Sure, lenders are more stringent than they have been in the past. Lenders have very good reason to have the measures in place today to manage risk. All of the losses that occurred and continue to occur are a testament to the practice of stricter lending guidelines.

Knowing that lending guidelines have tightened up but yet so many people still qualify is a sad fact.  Everything has tightened up though.  Not only have the lenders reformed their criteria for borrowers, the Office of Insurance and Financial Regulations have imposed new requirements for mortgage brokers.  While banks do not have the same requirements as mortgage brokers, the pure fact that the requirements to actually lend borrowers money has tightened up as well. Individuals are required to be individually licensed in order to work in the mortgage industry, unless they work for a bank, then they are required to register and have background checks, but are not required to take and State exams or pass any certification tests.

Maybe consumers are concerned about who they deal with and have chosen to not take action in fear that they might not get the very best mortgage from a reputable person. With all of the new requirements on mortgage brokerages, the mortgage broker is safer and more adept at providing the best product and service compared to a bank where the same requirements are not required.

Consumers can have more confidence now when mortgage shopping, knowing that there used to be over 35,000 individuals originating mortgages just 3 years ago - there are less than 4,000 currently in 2010.  Essentially, the ones that are left in the brokerages deserve to be there and have done what is required to stay and serve their clients. Banks will always be around and quite honestly, many of the loan officers that feared taking the State exams fled to local banks and credit unions as a "safe shelter" in order to circumvent these requirements. 

What is funny is that things have seemed to go back to the way they were decades ago.  Banks are great at holding your money and providing personal loans and credit cards. Mortgages are something they offer, but at far less capacity than they did in the last decade.

Mortgage brokers, on the other hand, are doing just what they are supposed to do - provide the right mortgage for the borrowers situation. They don't do car loans or credit cards or hold any deposits for banking, they just do mortgages. The mortgage you need when looking to purchase or refinance can be done very well by your local mortgage broker. They have ALL of the banks and their individual rates and credit criteria. Your local bank has their one and only rate offering for each product they may have, which these days may be 3 to 4 mortgage products.

Choosing to refinance with a mortgage broker will always get you a better rate, lower fees, and a tremendously larger selection of banks that can truly compete for your business. If there is that one low rate out there, the mortgage brokers have it while the banks may just come close. For a transaction that you should only be doing a few times in your lifetime, choosing the broker pays off huge dividends.

So rates are historically low, mortgage brokers that exist operate by the strictest guidelines, and the time to save money through refinancing your existing home loan is now. Will rates go lower? Maybe. Are they low enough now to warrant consumers taking action? Without a doubt.

We take pride in helping our clients save money and our business has been built strictly by referrals. We do not have an advertising budget like Lending Tree or Quicken Loans, we just make the best choices for our clients on a consistent basis. Let us help you and at least take a look at your options. Exploring possibilities to save money on refinancing your existing mortgage may be one of the smartest choices you will make in 2010.......or one that you definitely wish you would have done should you choose to maintain the status quo.

Over the years in the financial and mortgage business I have seen more credit reports than the average person. It used to be that the credit report with low scores was something I would see every once in a while. These days, seeing the great credit report is the exception. It seems as if the tides have turned in this department.

The economy is tough all over. In these tough economic times people make the hard decisions for themselves and their families. Food, shelter, clothing, heat, electric, etc....the basics will take the front seat. Credit card bills and other expenses have been getting the least attention from many consumers.

When these decisions are made, often times out of necessity, the damage lasts for quite some time. Late payments on your credit report will cause consequences that have a very negative effect for a number of years. Sadly, bad credit is more common the past few years than I would care to see. It would be great if the frequency in which we came across bad credit reports was far less than what it is.

Statistically, when a real estate agent hosts an open house, approximately 80% of all individuals have poor credit.  That means that 8 out of 10 people would not even qualify for a mortgage. The remaining 2 might have average or good credit. In this lending environment, those remaining credit worthy customers now get to deal with a lender who has raised the factors for eligibility so that a credit score is simply like a "key for the door", so to speak. Now there are debt ratios, disposable income requirements, etc.

When I come upon a client with bad credit, slow or late payment history, collections, etc., there is a conversation that occurs with that customer. Every customer is unique and every credit report is different. Regardless of what is within each credit report, the customer is now faced with two choices. For the sake of this topic here and to keep it as simple and realistic as possible these two choices are truly all that remain.

First, and most obvious, is to identify the problems and address them head on. Sometimes the credit report contains only one or two simple problems and a consumer can often times remedy those on their own. There are certain procedures that need to be followed in order to insure these problems are handled correctly. Most consumers simply do not have the experience to take care of the issues on their credit report.

Credit repair companies have popped up everywhere over the years. Some are fly by night "companies" but there are some legitimate, long standing companies that perform very well. They provide a real service and get real results. Years ago these companies would charge thousands of dollars for their services. Now, companies that offer legitimate services are doing it for less than $50 a month.

The second choice that a consumer is faced with is to simply maintain the status quo. Doing nothing is considerably easier than doing something about a problem that has given a consumer such anxiety. Face it, most people don't like to address their problems. They will rationalize very easily and quickly that they don't need that new house, or that they are "ok" paying a high interest rate on their cars, and that credit cards aren't something they really needed anyway.

Taking no action is always easier than taking some action towards whatever the problem is. The sad reality is that the majority of people lean towards doing nothing at all. Invariably, these very same consumers will wait a while, let some time go by, and then call another mortgage company hoping and possibly expecting the answer they want. What they hear is nothing more than the exact same they were told when they had a conversation about their bad credit.

Taking a stance to address your poor credit will definitely bring you rewards. I have NEVER seen a single customer that chose to take action where it didn't cause serious positive effects for them. For less than $50 a month a quality company can repair mistakes on a credit report and have a score increased in just a few short months. I have seen customers raise their score over 80 points in less than 60 days. That was the difference between getting a loan and not getting one.

The moral of the story is that it IS tough and the average person's credit is poor these days. As a mortgage professional I would highly recommend letting a professional get involved and help fix the problem.......you will look back and absolutely know it was one of the best decisions you ever made. By doing that you will have opened doors that otherwise would have remained closed.

To learn more about how credit laws work and credit repair can assist you or someone you know, check out our credit repair section.

For those of you have heard about Rural Development (RD) and what it can do for future homeowners, you can truly appreciate how special it is that this program is back while the current pool of funds is still available.  On March 10th of this year, an official statement was released by the SFH Loan Guarantee Division of the USDA.

Now, when we hear from this division we normally are expecting some statistics or legislative type of memo introducing a new guideline.  What we aren't expecting is a Notice Of Funding letter.  That type of letter can go one of two ways.  Either that Rural Development was just given an increase of funds to work with, or something telling you the program was out of funds.  It is extrememly rare to get the latter of the two.  Rarely does a government lender run out of funds for real estate programs, especially in this market.

Here is the statement:

"Notice of Funding

This message is to notify you that program funding for the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program will likely be exhausted by the end of April, 2010.

Once funding is exhausted, the Agency will not issue Conditional Commitments “subject to receipt of appropriated funds.” This is because it is not certain when additional funding will be available.

Limited funding may become available for disaster areas declared in 2008, or in disaster areas declared for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Limited funding may also become available as prior Agency commitments are de-obligated, however, such funding will be very limited."

The entire concept of Rural Development was fantastic when it was brought to the market so long ago.  Over the years, lenders created mortgage programs that mirrored the RD program in regards to 100% financing, but at considerably higher interest rates.  Many homeowners opted for these type of programs, believing the "red tape" of Government Lending would be to daunting and elected to go with the easier route to homeownership.

The perception that Rural Development loans are full of "red tape" is real, but unwarranted.  RD loans are like any other lending product as they have specific guidelines that must be adhered to and requirements that must be met.  While there may be a little more paperwork and requirements than the alternative solutions, it isn't considerably different.....to a professional.

Those alternative 100% lending programs ALL went away....yes, all of them!  Rightfully so, they were a costly approach to homeownership.  Sadly, in the end, many of these homes ended up in foreclosure.

Simply put, Rural Development is traditionally one of the least used and known about programs. There are certain income guidleines, but most of the population actually makes LESS than the maximum income limits allowed for RD loans.  There are also geographical restricitions.  The property must be located in an "RD Approved" location. 

As a lender that specializes in Rural Development loans, we can tell our clients if the home they are looking at is eligible for an RD loan.  Many times, there are specific areas that are "RD Eligible".  That allows our clients the ability to look at specific areas and know that they can get 100% financing if they purchase a  home in those areas.

In all, the fact that Rural Development loans have been approved for additional funding is fantastic.  It shows how much the program is needed in a lending environment where there are such few options available.  If you have little money and are struggling to come up with a downpayment, this program could be just the thing you need. 

Housing prices are ridiculous.  I can't remember ever seeing prices this low.  Interest rates are phenomenal.  I can say with certainty that interest rates have never been this low.  Any tracking measures you care to use in your assesment of the current market will all reflect this.  To buy a house now is to truly invest in your future.

There is one tremendous down side to Rural Development loans though.  The problem has existed for years but rarely have we seen it come to life, until this year.  The major issue with Rural Development is that the funds are limited......when they are gone they are gone.  The ONLY exception to that age old policy is the abilty of Congress to pass a bill allowing additional funds.  Thank goodness we are fortunate enough for that to have happened recently.

For a program that generally lasts all year to run out of funds in just over 100 days is a BIG problem.  With all that being said, there will be a "mad rush" on these loan applications in the next few weeks and hopefully for some time after that.  Funds are limited so who really knows right now.  Federal guidelines require that all RD Applications be processed int the order they are received.  What this means is that those who wait risk the chance of missing out on these very funds being available to them.

For as rare as it is to run out of funds so quickly, it reflects how wonderful the program is and how many people it can assist....and apparently IS assisting.  If Rural Development is a lending product that could help you, a further look into it now instead of later would be far more prudent. But hey, you could wait and try again next year!

You can visit our information center to learn more about how you can benefit from the latest legislation approved by Congress to help homeowners.

With the end of school now upon us, many families that have held off purchasing are now heavily in the market looking to move while the timing is good.  Many families are taking advantage of the historically low interest rates and very low home prices.  There has never been a time when a homeowner could purchase a home for less than the one the are moving out of....and it turns out to be a bigger home for less money in most cases.

Renters have the opportunity of a lifetime in todays market.  I can remember 15 years ago when I lived in a 2 bedroom loft apartment in Grand Rapids.  I paid $775 a month and it was almost 900 sq. ft.  Today, $775 would get you a home that is all yours and at least 50% bigger.  The staggering point is that it is 15 YEARS LATER!!  Real estate generally moves up in value and is one of the smartest investments you could ever make.....NOW is the time to capitalize on the real estate market.

Buying a home now is exactly like buying Microsoft stock for pennies on the dollar.  The investment can't go wrong.  The market could go lower, but it seems that the market will flatten and then rise at this point.  The value is definitely there in any area you are searching in to make it worth your time to begin a serious search.  Paying rent and getting nothing for it seems pointless....insanely pointless right now.  Why would anyone rent when the home prices and interest rates are better than ever.  Owning a home provides a solid investment in this market and the money you shell out each month for the mortgage payment actually goes TOWARDS your future....rent goes towards someone else's future.

The sermon that you will hear preached here and everywhere else these days is simple.....BUY a HOUSE!!!  If you rent and you could be approved for a mortgage, then I would love to know the logic on that one.  Seriously, I am starting a book of reasons people have to NOT buy a house when they can afford it AND the market is perfect for them to do so!  Ok, maybe I am not going to write a book, but someone should if people aren't jumping through hoops of fire to purchase a home for themselves and their family.

I have parents that recently retired and we have had many conversations about the cost of the homes they have purchased over the years.  The real estate market seems to be priced about 20 years ago.  Homes seniors purchased 20 years ago and skyrocketed in value ten years ago are now selling for prices from the late 80's and early 90's!!!  None of the people in the age range of my parents...senior citizens (sorry mom and dad), can remember it being this perfect to buy....ever.

So get on the move and get yourself educated on the real estate market if you aren't already, get pre-approved so you can shop with confidence, and get busy searching for that perfect home.  Many people are doing that everything right now, will you be one of them or will you look back later on and kick yourself for sitting back and watching it all happen.....don't be THAT person.

Enjoy your weekend and hopefully you will be calling myself or another qualified professional soon so you can get started on the best decision you have ever made in your future.

Many homeowners can benefit from refinancing their home mortgage with the current market conditions being heavily in your favor right now. Interest rates are at all time historic lows and you would be fortunate to see these rates come back again in your lifetime. With that in mind, it is very important to have a financial goal in mind so that you can easily choose the correct refinancing option in order to truly benefit from mortgage refinance. Refinancing a home loan is a very big, and important decision that rests entirely on the homeowners discretion depending on what there financial situation and goals are. Here are 3 of the most popular reasons homeowners choose to refinance a mortgage.

Get a Less Expensive and More Affordable Monthly Mortgage Payment

Most homeowners will be able to save a lot of money just by getting a home loan interest rate that is 1 percentage point or more less than what they pay. The truth is, homeowners who do not refinance are most likely wasting money every month on unnecessary interest payments. Refinancing a mortgage will give a homeowner a few different choices that will lower monthly home loan payments. With rates like we are seeing right now, virtually everyone can save 1 percentage point on their mortgage.

Refinancing into a home loan with a lower interest rate is the best, and most popular way homeowners save money through refinancing. Lower interest rates almost always mean lower monthly home loan payments.

Homeowners can also choose to change the length of their home loan. The typical mortgage is 30 years long, and many homeowners are already a few years into payments. Refinancing a mortgage will let homeowners lengthen their home loan so that the payments are more spread out, and cheaper every month. Some homeowners may want to save as much money as possible and will want to actually shorten the amount of time it takes to payback their mortgage. Shortening the home loan will dramatically reduce the amount of interest a homeowner pays in interest over the course of the home loan.

Switch an Adjustable Rate Mortgage to a Fixed Rate

Many homeowners who purchased a home within the past decade have gotten into an adjusted rate mortgage. These popular loan types were easy to qualify for, and often offered very low initial interest rates. However, since then, many of the ARM loans have adjusted and gone up dramatically in interest rates due to a struggling economy and housing market. Fixed rate mortgage interest rates though have steadily declined and are now at near record lows. Many homeowners should think about dropping their ARM loan for a more stable, lower cost fixed rate mortgage.

Most homeowners will be living in their home for many years to come but some may be planning on selling or moving out in the near future. If a homeowner will not be living in their home for too much longer, refinancing into a fixed rate mortgage may not be beneficial at all. The costs associated with refinancing a home loan will not be easily recovered, and homeowners who sell their home before the savings come into effect will just lose money on a refinance. As a general rule of thumb, homeowners who will be living in their home for 6 or more years will be better off with a fixed rate mortgage.

Get Cash from A Homes Equity

Many homeowners use their homes value as a type of savings account. A cash out mortgage refinancing will let a homeowner tap into their homes value, and the equity they have built, to get the homeowner a large amount of cash that can be used for anything. Many homeowners get a cash out refinance and make a major purchase, pay off college tuition, pay medical bills, or eliminate other high debts. No matter what you use the money for, a cash out refinancing is another popular mortgage refinance option.

Each persons situation is different, but there are many choices to be made when refinancing a mortgage. Homeowners will generally be refinancing for one of these four reasons. Everyones situation is unique and the only way to truly figure out what mortgage refinancing option is right is to contact your GoldStar Financial professional today and discuss your options.

Every day I am working with clients who are truly in the market to purchase a foreclosed home.  The market is flooded with them so, for many people, it is something to certainly look at.  The tremendous values the homes can be bought at makes it hard to look the other way sometimes.  Homes that someone may not ordinarily consider now become serious options simply because that $150,000 home is now selling for $65,000....kind of hard to look the other way on those types of deals.

Everyone has heard about someone buying a home at a ridiculous price and it was made out to seem as if this home just fell into their lap and they couldn't pass it up.  Maybe that is the case, but the odds are stacked against that scenario ever truly playing out.  Do they happen? YES.  Do they happen like that often? NO WAY. 

Foreclosed homes all go through a certain process.  Certain banks and lenders make much more of their information public than other institutions do.  Which means that there could be 100 homes in foreclosure all held by 10 different banks, BUT only half of them report to the databases and therefore only 50 of the homes may show up readily with basic information for a potential buyer to consider.

The other homes are often handed off to a real estate company that is responsible for liquidating the "asset" the bank is now left holding the mortgage on.  They are foreclosed homes that NEED to be sold, but they are not marketed through a national database, but rather through a real estate company.  Maybe that lender has a better track record of selling those homes than an online database has of selling them.  Knowing that this route is more often than not, the chosen path, makes a solid argument for knowing who these real estate companies are.

Some companies do both.....register the property status on public record and provide the real estate company the listing to sell the property.

Considering that the majority of homes are NOT found and sold through these online databases you see everywhere, now you know how they are slipping through the crack of the "system" and passing you right on by.  Maybe you would've bought one of them had you KNOWN about them, but you were only looking at a national database and making an assumption that it was THE place to look.

The hard part as a consumer wanting to buy a foreclosed home is simply that you need both.  Finding the agents who sell JUST these properties is very difficult.  They are extremely busy working with the lenders they are selling properties for and definitely do not need to advertise they do so in order to sell these homes.  Of course, they are trying to get top dollar for the lender to minimize the banks losses, but if you KNEW who the agents were, then you would KNOW that they have a lot more room to play on selling the house than Mr. Smith down the street does who is selling HIS home.

Then, there are asset managers at banks.  ALL banks have them and they have a huge part to play in all of this too.  There are laws with foreclosures.  How long someone can live in the home after the sheriff's sale varies from State to State and county to county, but generally it is 6 to 12 months, depending upon acreage.  If an asset manager KNOWS of a mortgage in default and that they are going to need to get rid of it as soon as possible, they are more likely to cut a deal for YOU, the end buyer who gets the property off from their financial books.

You would never know about those properties or many others, but the point to all of this is very simple.  If you want to go it alone and try and search for that next great deal, and your only "experience" in real estate is that you own a home or someone you know does, then you don't stand much of a chance compared to the network of professionals that I work with that eat, sleep, and breathe the current real estate market. 

These professionals make daily calls and emails to every contact they have to see what is GOING to hit the market soon and when it will be available to sell.  Knowing who these agents are will give you the advantage that you need when attempting to purchase a home....and not just a foreclosure, but a great deal on ANY home.

I take a lot of pride in knowing these agents, bank managers, and numerous other resources that allow me to help my clients find what they are looking for.  They have the homes and all you need is the cash.  If you literally have cash, that is great!  But if you are like most of my clients, then you need to get pre-approved and be ready for that deal when it comes along.  All banks in this market will not even consider taking an offer from someone who cannot prove the ARE pre-approved.  That is another area where we stand out.  We can get you pre-qualified in minutes and show you what you can purchase.  Taking the first step to buying a foreclosure should always be asking yourself "How am I going to pay for this" and then "How do I go about doing that"........

How you're paying is up to you, but if you need help with the financing end and are not certain how you go about doing that, then we can help.  It IS what we do and it is actually quite amazing on how simple it really is when you work with the right staff of professionals like us.

Shop with the right resources at your disposal and shop with confidence when we have you pre-approved. HAPPY SHOPPING!!

2010 has been a very interesting year in the mortgage industry. The market is still very active considering the massive amount of short sales and foreclosures that are happening all around us each day. Home prices are at all time historic lows and interest rates are VERY low as well. When homes are priced the way they are and rates are just to good to pass up, homes tend to sell for some reason. It is a very good thing that consumers can purchase real estate at the prices they have been selling for. Where else in history have you been able to purchase a 4 bedroom, 2 bath house for less than 50K? Grandma and Grandpa's house don't count either! There simply has never been a time so amazing to be a homeowner.

Rural Development was one of the last true "100%" financing loans that were left available for homeowners in 2010, but they ran out of funding in May of this year.  Congress already passed the proposed additional funding so the program could continue. Without RD loans, lending would certainly have slowed down as many potential homeowners still struggle with coming up with a down payment on a home. Rural Development insures that is no longer an issue.

If I had to provide some good advice moving in to the summer of 2010, it would be to simply NOT HESITATE! Home prices are just to low to ignore not buying. Interest rates are just to low to say you will apply later....why!?! Rural Development was almost left without any funds to close loans and the funds were dried up by May?!?! Waiting a minute longer than you have to only means you are risking, quite frankly, a LOT! The "great" deal on a home could be sold, the interest rate you "think" you can get will be long gone, and thinking Rural Development or other great Government lending programs will "always" be here for you just isn't prudent thinking in this market.

Don't wait to make a choice. At the bare minimum, you need to Get Qualifed for a home so that when the time comes and you do find that home that meets you and your families needs......you are READY. Each and every day we make that happen for potential home owners. Shopping with confidence is easy when you use our professional team of loan officers ready to serve you and your family.

Financial markets continue to be roiled by sub-prime mortgage concerns. And a number of doom and gloom prognosticators are saying we are in a recession or predicting recession. We continue to disagree with these gloomy assessments of the U.S. economy. We are confident we are not in a recession, and we do not expect a recession this year.

Yes, housing construction and home prices are down, but other sectors of the economy are taking up the slack – notably U.S. exports which are rising at an 8% growth rate in real terms and are 3½ times the size of residential construction. The consumer is hanging in there, behaving rationally. Real consumer spending excluding energy (taking out gasoline, heating oil and the like) rose 2.6% last year, while spending on energy slowed to 0.3% (and fell outright in the fourth quarter). Makes sense to us given outrageously high energy prices. Business fixed investment is chugging along at a steady 7.5% growth rate in real terms. Inventory investment was soft all year and fell in Q4, but we consider that to be a positive this year – no inventory glut to clear out. And government spending is doing what it always does – rising – at a steady 2.5% rate in real terms.

Income and interest rates look okay. Real after-tax personal income is chugging along at a 2.1% growth rate. The personal saving rate, while low, is in positive territory. Outside of these sub-prime related write-offs at a bunch of big, dumb banks, company earnings look pretty good. With 439 of the S&P 500 companies having reported, non-financial company earnings are up about 14% over the last four quarters. There were big gains in Technology (good volume, better pricing), Energy (sky-high oil prices), Healthcare (demographic tailwind) and Industrials (exports). And the Federal Reserve is cutting, not hiking, interest rates.

What we worry about are rising oil prices and/or further dollar declines. Another big rise in oil prices might do enough damage to tip us into recession, and further dollar declines would erode international investment in U.S. financial markets. And oil prices have moved back up to $90-100 per barrel range. Unfortunately, energy policy has not helped. Starting last September, with oil prices around $75, the Energy Department began adding oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve! Over the same time the private sector reduced inventories and petroleum use fell. So, on the margin, it appears that the U.S. government was the big marginal buyer helping push prices from $75 to $100. Not smart… However, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting a deceleration in global demand for oil and a rise in supply. So there are some grounds to expect lower oil prices.

We will continue to watch the economy and these data closely and report back to you. For now, we remain optimistic that we will avoid recession and return to faster growth and rising financial markets. As always, please call us with any questions or concerns.